The Ontario government says the province’s finances are showing signs of resilience despite ongoing global economic uncertainty.
In its 2025 to 26 third quarter update released earlier this week, the Ministry of Finance projected a deficit of 13.4 billion dollars for the fiscal year. According to the province, revenues are now expected to reach 223.7 billion dollars, about 600 million dollars higher than anticipated in the fall economic statement.
The government also reported stronger economic performance than previously forecast. Real gross domestic product is estimated to have grown by 1.2 per cent in 2025, while the province’s net debt to GDP ratio is projected to decline to 36.9 per cent.
At the same time, program expenses are trending higher. Spending is now projected at nearly 220 billion dollars, above earlier expectations. Interest and debt servicing costs remain in line with prior forecasts, and the province says its borrowing rate assumption for the year has not changed.
The update notes that Ontario set aside a two billion dollar reserve in the budget to guard against unexpected pressures. Half of that amount has now been drawn down.
According to the government, the improved revenue picture and economic growth estimates put Ontario on what it describes as a responsible path while still allowing for investments aimed at supporting workers and businesses.
The province says it will provide a more detailed outlook when it delivers the 2026 budget before the end of March.
(Written by: Joseph Goden)
